Two games vs Toronto Plus what to Expect Tonight

Hey look he made a post. Ya, I have been away for a bit, I get it. I am back and ready to talk about how the Oilers won't make the playoffs and they should blow up the whole team!

HAH KIDDING. Seriously the team is fine. They played two stinkers against the best team in the NHL right now. Granted they were without their star goalie and their star player but that is why you have the depth around you to pick up the slack. The Leafs have depth on top of depth up front. Plus the acquisitions they made on the back end have really worked. I don't want to get into fancy stats today, I just want to talk eye test and the eye test says that Zach Bogosian has been fantastic this year. You could see it when he was containing McDavid all game. Leaving Connor McDavid scoreless for a period is hard! Let alone 6 periods. The Leafs did a great job of stopping the Oilers, getting early goals, and sitting on it. They knew they were running back-up goalies and they played to that.

What do the Oilers need to do going forward?

This is the question I asked myself about halfway through the game on Monday. What does Dave Tippett and staff do with the roster that they have right now? Just for this game, it seems like they are reuniting the Nuge-Drai-Yam line. Great! It has been asked multiple times why it hasn't been used since last year. They weren't put together in the play-in round vs Chicago and not at all this year yet. Before the stoppage, they played like a number 1 line. They were first put together in January of last year and combined for 19 goals in 20 games. Not too shabby!

Now it is hard to tell if they will have the same chemistry as last year but it can't hurt to put them back together right? Rekindling former chemistry is hard to do especially in the NHL

Goalie Probs

It really has been a problem. Yes, Mike Smith is 6-1 and he does have a good sv% and GAA right now. How long will that last? He looked shakey vs Vancouver and he looked very bad in the first game vs Toronto. Now yes he came in for Koskinen and blanked the Leafs on Monday. That being said, a lot of the shots weren't high quality shots against. So what is the solution? As you may have read in Wednesdays with Austyn, Austyn believes that Alex Stalock (who was claimed last week from Minnesota) can be a 1B option for the Oilers by the time the season is done. Last year the 4th round pick played in 38 games posting 20 wins! That is pretty good. A .910 sv% is pretty good too. So in a small sample size, he has looked pretty good. The thing he has against him right now is he is undersized for a goalie by today's standards. Standing at 6 ft tall he will be smaller than both of the goalies on the main roster right now. Also, he has to get to Edmonton and quarantine so realistically we won't see him play a game until at least mid-March. Will it be a bit of a stop-gap goalie? Absolutely! Should they try it? Absolutely.

Now going forward I am not going to put projected lines for each team, instead, I am just going to say what the changes are and if I think they will work.

Oilers (14-10)

The top two lines have moved around. Obviously Nuge-Drai-Yam is back so that means somebody else will go with McDavid on the left side and for tonight it will be James Neal. Now, James Neal, this year has 5 points in just 11 games. He has scored only 2 of those points on the powerplay so he is producing without McDavid, can he produce with him? As long as he gets in the right places he will be fine. I actually like this move because if you look at the other LW on the Oilers, there are slim pickings or they do the same job as Jesse Puljujarvi. Ennis, Kahun and even Archibald when he plays on that side dig pucks out and if you too many bodies in one area it can get pretty clogged and they will get in each other's way. Also, Joakim Nygard has been recalled while P. Russell is down on the tax squad now.

Looking at the defense, Evan Bouchard will sit again. *sigh* Instead we will see the stout D pairing of Kris Russell and Tyson Barrie. That scares the holy hell out of me. If you are just looking at the giveaway to takeaway ratio these two are not good. 11 takeaways to 26 giveaways for Barrie and 3 takeaways to 7 giveaways. Plus both of them have a sub 50% Corsi for. Not an amazing pairing. The others are Nurse-Bear and Jones-Larsson. Those I can live with.

Leafs (17-4-2)

The Leafs changes are more significant. They get back two strong pieces in Auston Matthews and Freddy Anderson. If the Oilers thought Hutchinson and Jack Campbell were tough, they've got another thing comin'. Auston Matthews was named a Star of the month of February by the NHL. Posting 21 points in 11 games. 12 of those points were goals, which is an insane number. Look for him to center the line between Thornton and Marner tonight. Anderson comes back after posting a 6-1 record in February and a .918sv %, which was a big improvement over the first months of work.

3 Oil Drops for Victory:

1. McDavid Magic. We need some of that, you know? Getting blanked in two straight games is weird for him I think and he will be looking for blood tonight. I Say he scores at least once and has a 3 point night.

2. Stopping the Top Guns. It's not just Matthews you have to worry about. It is Mitch Marner who not only leads his team in points but also had 18 points in 12 games in the short month of February. It is stopping William Nylander who in his last 3 games has 4 goals. The Leafs have scoring depth and it needs to be contained tonight.

3. Get a big save. When the Oilers got down the last two games they looked dejected. No life in them, no jump and really no effort. That is where a big save can come into play! Can Mike Smith make that big save if the Oilers really need it tonight? That is remained to be seen.

Will the Oilers score a goal?